Migrations: BiH

Six years after Dayton the return of refugees and IDPs is still a very important issue for BiH. Unfortunately results are unsatisfactory for a variety of reasons. The process has involved a triangle in which there has been little or no synergy � the refugees are displaced, the local authorities and the international community. When the international community was providing funds for return, the governments of the entities did everything possible to hinder the process. Now, as political relations thaw and the powers-that-be are beginning to accept the new realities, it seems, unfortunately, that the international community is drawing back. The international funds that would finally bring the whole process to completion appear to be running out.

This raises questions about how the international community intends to closeout its presence in BiH, given that one reason it is here to enable all those expelled to return to their homes. For the moment, however, let us review each group separately.

Refugees
There are still 613,700 refugees accommodated outside BiH.
328,900 have permanently solved there status in the countries hosting them and are no longer potential returnees to BiH. It can be assumed, although data is not available, that these are mostly young, educated people, a heavy demographic loss for BiH with lasting negative consequences.
The remaining 284, 800 refugees are in need of a permanent solutions, which means that unless conditions are created in BiH for their sustainable return, most of them will try to integrate locally. 78% of them live in either Yugoslavia or Croatia.
Around 372,000 refugees have returned to BiH since the signing of the Dayton Agreement. 342,848, or 92.12% returned to the FBiH. 29,345 or 7.88% returned to the RS. 68.98% of returning refugees were Bosniaks, 19.31% Croats, 10.68% Serbs, while 1.03% were �others�.

It was those with secondary and tertiary qualification who succeeded in fleeing the country. The individuals accepted were the ones who suited the needs of the countries and their models of assimilation. They represented, to a large extent, the population section capable of adapting to new technologies, upsetting the balance of skills available in BiH. The skills that helped them find asylum have helped them to adapt to life there. Mass repatriation has in general affected the older and less skilled.

Displaced people
There are currently 555,700 displaced people in BiH, 283,900 in FBiH, 248,300 in the RS, and 23,500 in Brčko District.
One hundred percent of all displaced people in the FBiH are Bosniaks or Croats. There are no Serbs among them. In the RS displaced persons are exclusively Serbs.

The return of a total 368,898 displaced persons in BiH has been registered since the signing of the Dayton Agreement. Adding to this the number of refugee returns one gets a total of 741, 091 returns to and in BiH. As 2.2 million were forcibly expelled at the beginning of the war, return so far amounts to a mere 30% or so. There is an obvious disparity between registered returns to the FBiH, 79.28%, and to the RS, 19.83%. The main reason is political obstruction at all levels of government in the RS, which generates a general atmosphere of fear and insecurity among returnees. The indecisiveness of the international community and the lack of a systematic approach to the problem have only cemented the existing unfavorable ratio of returns.

The displaced were in a different situation from refugees, as their skills and orientation were not usually well suited to their new environment. This was particularly the case for those who fled rural areas and settled in cities. Today, when the time has come to return to their original homes, however, many are reluctant to go. Their attitude is justified in so far as return to villages is impossible unless agricultural tools are provided, cattle supplied and the land demined.

UNDP - Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Office